Research Article
Şubat Depremlerinin Bölgesel Girişimcilik Faaliyetleri ve İşgücü Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi
Abstract
Depremler şirketlerin altyapılarını, tedarik zincirlerini, iş yaşam hatlarını ve girişimcilik için gerekli olan insan sermayesini yok ederek bölgesel istihdamın azalmasına ve zamanla bölgenin ekonomik çöküşüne yol açabilir. Bu çalışmanın öncelikli amacı, Şubat Depremlerinin on bir ilin girişimcilik faaliyetleri ve işgücü göstergeleri üzerindeki olumsuz etkilere ışık tutmaktır. Makale, SGK, TÜİK ve TOBB gibi kurumlardan illerin girişimcilik potansiyellerini temsil eden iş yeri sayısı, girişim sayısı ve yeni kurulan firma sayısı verilerini tedarik ederek, depremlerin mevcut girişimcilik faaliyetleri üzerindeki etkisini hesaplamaktadır. Bunu başarmak için çalışma ilk olarak, aylık olarak yayınlanan verilerin önceki yılın aynı dönemine göre değişim oranlarını hesaplamaktadır, ardından bunu illerin 2023 yılı ortalama girişim sayılarının hesaplanmasında kullanmaktadır. Benzer bir yaklaşımı, istihdam ve işsizlik sayılarının hesaplamasında da kullanmaktadır. SGK'dan elde edilen aylık sigortalı çalışan sayısı ve TÜİK'ten alınan yıllık işgücü göstergelerini kullanarak, makale depremlerin istihdam ve işsizlik üzerindeki olası etkilerini ortaya çıkartmaktadır. Bulgular depremlerin illerin girişimcilik faaliyetlerinde yıkıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Depremler özel iş yeri sayısında aylık ortalama 39 bin düşüşe yol açarken, 2023 yılı sonunda toplam 125 bin girişimin kapanmasına neden olmaktadır. Diğer taraftan, bu kayıplar, aylık ortalama 262 bin sigortalı çalışanın işinden olması ve yıl sonunda artı 585 bin kişinin işsiz kalması anlamına gelmektedir. Ayrıca, meydana gelen bu kayıpların yüzde 70'inin birinci derecede hasarlı illerden kaynaklı olduğunu belirtmekte fayda vardır.
Keywords
Ethical Statement
Etik kurul gerektiren bir veri kullanılmamıştır.
Supporting Institution
Destekleyen herhangi bir kurum yoktur.
Project Number
Proje yok
Thanks
Hakemlere ve editöre teşekkür etmek istiyorum.
References
- Akar, S. (2013). Doğal afetlerin kamu maliyesi üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi
- Aksoy, C., Chupilkin, M., Kelly, R., Koczan, Z., & Plekhanov, A. (2023). The impact of the 2023 earthquakes on Türkiye’s economy: First estimates. Retrieved from Voxeu Column, Macroeconomic Policy.
- Ballesteros, M., & Sonny, D. (2015). Building Philippine SMEs resilience to natural disasters. PIDS discussion paper series, No. 2015-20. Makati: Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). http://hdl.handle.net/10419/127030.
- Boudreaux, C., Jha, A., & Escaleras, M. (2022). Weathering the storm: How foreign aid and institutions affect entrepreneurship activity following natural disasters. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 46(6), 1843-1868. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1177/ 10422 58721 10021 85.
- Boudreaux, C., Jha, A., & Escaleras, M. (2023). Natural disasters, entrepreneurship activity, and the moderating role of country governance. Small Bus Econ., 60, 1483-1508. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-022-00657-y.
- Brück, T., Llussá, F., & Tavares, J. A. (2011). Entrepreneurship: The role of extreme events. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 578–588. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/ j. ejpoleco. 2011. 08. 002.
- Bustamante, C., Poblete, C., & Amoros, J. (2022). Entrepreneurial intentions in the context of a natural disaster. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17(5), 1198-1217. doi:10.1108/IJOEM-10-2019-0846
- Carvalho, V., Nirei, M., Saito, Y., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2016). Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the great east Japan earthquake. Discussion papers no. 287. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan. doi:https:// ideas. repec. org/p/ mof/ wpaper/ ron287. html
- Cole, M., Elliott, R., Toshihiro, O., & Strobl, E. (2015). Natural disasters, industrial clusters and manufacturing plant survival. RIETI discussion paper series. https://research-highlights.keio.ac.jp/uploads/2018/05/15e008-1.pdf.
- CRED. (2023). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Retrieved March 10, 2023, from https://www.cred.be/.
- Davlasheridze, M., & Geylani, P. C. (2017). Small Business vulnerability to floods and the effects of disaster loans. Small Business Economics, 49(4), 865–888. doi:https:// doi.org/ 10. 1007/ s11187- 017- 9859-5.
- Edobor, E., & Marshall, M. (2021). Earth, wind, water, fire and man: How disasters impact firm births in the USA. Natural Hazards, 107, 395–421. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04588-x.
- Grube, L. E., & Storr, V. H. (2018). Embedded entrepreneurs and post- disaster community recovery. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 30(7-8), 800–821. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 08985626. 2018.1457084.
- Hu, X., Pant, R., Hall, J., Surminski, S., & Huang, J. (2019). Multi-Scale Assessment of The Economic Impacts Of Flooding: Evidence From Firm To Macro-Level Analysis In The Chinese Manufacturing Sector. Sustainability, 11. doi:1933. doi:10.3390/su11071933.
- ILO, (2023). The effects of the February 2023 earthquake on the labour market in Türkiye. https://www.ilo.org/ankara/publications.
- Mahto, R., Llanos-Contreras, O., & Hebles, M. (2022). Post-disaster recovery for family firms: The role of owner motivations, firm resources, and dynamic capabilities. Journal of Business Research, 145, 117–129. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.02.089.
- Monllor, J., & Altay, N. (2016). Discovering opportunities in necessity: the inverse creative destruction effect. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 23(1), 274-291. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSBED-10-2014-0172.
- Monllor, J., & Murphy, P. (2017). Natural disasters, entrepreneurship, and creation after destruction. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior ve Research, 23(4), 618–637. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10.1108/ IJEBR- 02- 2016- 0050.
- Muñoz, P., Kimmitt, J., Kibler, E., & Farny, S. (2019). Living on the slopes: Entrepreneurial preparedness in a context under continuous threat. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 31(5-6), 413-434. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 08985626. 2018. 1541591
- Özüdoğru, B. (2023). Yılında gerçekleşen kahramanmaraş merkezli depremin etkileri ve politika önerileri. Ankara: Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (TEPAV). https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10547
- Runyan, R. (2006). Small business in the face of crisis: Identifying barriers to recovery from a natural disaster 1. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 14(1), 12-26. doi: https:// doi. org/ 10. 1111/ j.1468- 5973. 2006. 00477.x
- Şahin, İ., & Kılınç, T. (2016). Türkiye’de 1980-2014 yılları arasında görülen depremlerin ekonomik etkileri. Siirt Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 4, 35-37.
- Salgado-Galvez, M. (2019). Lost production due to internal displacement. International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). Retrieved June 24, 2023 from www.internal-displacement.org
- SBB. (2023). T.C. Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı 2023 Kahramanmaraş ve Hatay depremleri raporu. Ankara: The Strategy and Budget Presidency. Retrieved June 24, 2023 from https://www.sbb.gov.tr/2023-kahramanmaras-ve-hatay-depremleri-raporu/.
- Schrank, H., Marshall, M., Hall-Phillips, A., Wiatt, R. F., & Jones, N. E. (2013). Small business demise and recovery after Katrina: Rate of survival and demise. Natural Hazards, 65(3), 2353–2374. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0480-2.
- SGK. (2023). Sosyal ve Güvenlik Kurumu. Retrieved June 24, 2023 from https://veri.sgk.gov.tr/. Shakya, K. (2016). Earthquake: Impact on Nepalese economy and women. Lowland Technology International. 18, 75-82.
- Shibusawa, H., & Matsushima, D. (2022). Assessing the economic impact of tsunami and nuclear power plant disasters in Shizuoka, Japan: a dynamic inter regional input–output (IRIO) approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6, 307–333. doi:10.1007/s41685-021-00196-6.
- Tanaka, A. (2015). The impacts of natural disasters on plants’ growth: evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake. Reg Sci Urban Econ, 50, 31-41. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. regsc iurbe co.2014. 11. 002
- TOBB. (2023). Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birliği, Retrieved September 24, 2023, from https://www.tobb.org.tr/Sayfalar/AnaSayfa.php.
- TÜİK, T. S. (2023). Türkye İstatitik Kurumu. Retrieved September 24, 2023, from https://www.tuik.gov.tr/.
- Webb, G. R., Tierney, K. J., & Dahlhamer, J. M. (2000). Businesses and disasters: Empirical patterns and unanswered questions. Natural Hazards Review, 1(2), 83–90. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1061/( ASCE) 1527-6988
- Weinhofer, G., & Busch, T. (2013). Corporate strategies for managing climate risks. Business Strategy and the Environment, 22(2), 121–144.
- Zhou, F., & Botzen, W. (2021). Firm Level Evidence of Disaster Impacts on Growth in Vietnam. Environmental and Resource Economics, 79, 277-322. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00562-0
Estimating the Effects of the February Earthquakes on Regional Entrepreneurial Activities and Labour Force Indicators
Abstract
Earthquakes can destroy companies' infrastructures, supply chains, business lifelines, and the human capital necessary for entrepreneurship, leading to a decrease in regional employment and, over time, to the economic collapse of the region. This study aims to reveal the effects of the February Earthquakes on the entrepreneurial activities and labour force indicators of eleven provinces. The article calculates the impact of earthquakes on current entrepreneurial activities by obtaining the number of private workplaces, the number of enterprises and the number of newly established companies representing the entrepreneurial potential of the provinces from institutions such as SGK, TÜİK and TOBB. The study first calculates the change rates of monthly published data compared to the same period of the previous year, and then uses this to calculate the average number of enterprises of the provinces in 2023. It uses a similar approach in calculating employment and unemployment numbers. Findings show that earthquakes have a devastating effect on provincial entrepreneurial activities. Earthquakes cause a monthly average decrease of 39 thousand in the number of private workplaces and a total of 125 thousand enterprises to be closed by the end of 2023. These losses mean that an average of 262 thousand insured employees will be laid off per month, and 585 thousand people will be unemployed by 2023. It is also worth noting that 70 percent of these losses originate from the first-degree damaged provinces.
Project Number
Proje yok
References
- Akar, S. (2013). Doğal afetlerin kamu maliyesi üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi
- Aksoy, C., Chupilkin, M., Kelly, R., Koczan, Z., & Plekhanov, A. (2023). The impact of the 2023 earthquakes on Türkiye’s economy: First estimates. Retrieved from Voxeu Column, Macroeconomic Policy.
- Ballesteros, M., & Sonny, D. (2015). Building Philippine SMEs resilience to natural disasters. PIDS discussion paper series, No. 2015-20. Makati: Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS). http://hdl.handle.net/10419/127030.
- Boudreaux, C., Jha, A., & Escaleras, M. (2022). Weathering the storm: How foreign aid and institutions affect entrepreneurship activity following natural disasters. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 46(6), 1843-1868. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1177/ 10422 58721 10021 85.
- Boudreaux, C., Jha, A., & Escaleras, M. (2023). Natural disasters, entrepreneurship activity, and the moderating role of country governance. Small Bus Econ., 60, 1483-1508. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-022-00657-y.
- Brück, T., Llussá, F., & Tavares, J. A. (2011). Entrepreneurship: The role of extreme events. European Journal of Political Economy, 27, 578–588. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/ j. ejpoleco. 2011. 08. 002.
- Bustamante, C., Poblete, C., & Amoros, J. (2022). Entrepreneurial intentions in the context of a natural disaster. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 17(5), 1198-1217. doi:10.1108/IJOEM-10-2019-0846
- Carvalho, V., Nirei, M., Saito, Y., & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2016). Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the great east Japan earthquake. Discussion papers no. 287. Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan. doi:https:// ideas. repec. org/p/ mof/ wpaper/ ron287. html
- Cole, M., Elliott, R., Toshihiro, O., & Strobl, E. (2015). Natural disasters, industrial clusters and manufacturing plant survival. RIETI discussion paper series. https://research-highlights.keio.ac.jp/uploads/2018/05/15e008-1.pdf.
- CRED. (2023). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. Retrieved March 10, 2023, from https://www.cred.be/.
- Davlasheridze, M., & Geylani, P. C. (2017). Small Business vulnerability to floods and the effects of disaster loans. Small Business Economics, 49(4), 865–888. doi:https:// doi.org/ 10. 1007/ s11187- 017- 9859-5.
- Edobor, E., & Marshall, M. (2021). Earth, wind, water, fire and man: How disasters impact firm births in the USA. Natural Hazards, 107, 395–421. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04588-x.
- Grube, L. E., & Storr, V. H. (2018). Embedded entrepreneurs and post- disaster community recovery. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 30(7-8), 800–821. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 08985626. 2018.1457084.
- Hu, X., Pant, R., Hall, J., Surminski, S., & Huang, J. (2019). Multi-Scale Assessment of The Economic Impacts Of Flooding: Evidence From Firm To Macro-Level Analysis In The Chinese Manufacturing Sector. Sustainability, 11. doi:1933. doi:10.3390/su11071933.
- ILO, (2023). The effects of the February 2023 earthquake on the labour market in Türkiye. https://www.ilo.org/ankara/publications.
- Mahto, R., Llanos-Contreras, O., & Hebles, M. (2022). Post-disaster recovery for family firms: The role of owner motivations, firm resources, and dynamic capabilities. Journal of Business Research, 145, 117–129. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2022.02.089.
- Monllor, J., & Altay, N. (2016). Discovering opportunities in necessity: the inverse creative destruction effect. Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development, 23(1), 274-291. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSBED-10-2014-0172.
- Monllor, J., & Murphy, P. (2017). Natural disasters, entrepreneurship, and creation after destruction. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior ve Research, 23(4), 618–637. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10.1108/ IJEBR- 02- 2016- 0050.
- Muñoz, P., Kimmitt, J., Kibler, E., & Farny, S. (2019). Living on the slopes: Entrepreneurial preparedness in a context under continuous threat. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 31(5-6), 413-434. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1080/ 08985626. 2018. 1541591
- Özüdoğru, B. (2023). Yılında gerçekleşen kahramanmaraş merkezli depremin etkileri ve politika önerileri. Ankara: Türkiye Ekonomi Politikaları Araştırma Vakfı (TEPAV). https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10547
- Runyan, R. (2006). Small business in the face of crisis: Identifying barriers to recovery from a natural disaster 1. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 14(1), 12-26. doi: https:// doi. org/ 10. 1111/ j.1468- 5973. 2006. 00477.x
- Şahin, İ., & Kılınç, T. (2016). Türkiye’de 1980-2014 yılları arasında görülen depremlerin ekonomik etkileri. Siirt Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi İktisadi Yenilik Dergisi, 4, 35-37.
- Salgado-Galvez, M. (2019). Lost production due to internal displacement. International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). Retrieved June 24, 2023 from www.internal-displacement.org
- SBB. (2023). T.C. Cumhuriyeti Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı 2023 Kahramanmaraş ve Hatay depremleri raporu. Ankara: The Strategy and Budget Presidency. Retrieved June 24, 2023 from https://www.sbb.gov.tr/2023-kahramanmaras-ve-hatay-depremleri-raporu/.
- Schrank, H., Marshall, M., Hall-Phillips, A., Wiatt, R. F., & Jones, N. E. (2013). Small business demise and recovery after Katrina: Rate of survival and demise. Natural Hazards, 65(3), 2353–2374. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0480-2.
- SGK. (2023). Sosyal ve Güvenlik Kurumu. Retrieved June 24, 2023 from https://veri.sgk.gov.tr/. Shakya, K. (2016). Earthquake: Impact on Nepalese economy and women. Lowland Technology International. 18, 75-82.
- Shibusawa, H., & Matsushima, D. (2022). Assessing the economic impact of tsunami and nuclear power plant disasters in Shizuoka, Japan: a dynamic inter regional input–output (IRIO) approach. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 6, 307–333. doi:10.1007/s41685-021-00196-6.
- Tanaka, A. (2015). The impacts of natural disasters on plants’ growth: evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) earthquake. Reg Sci Urban Econ, 50, 31-41. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1016/j. regsc iurbe co.2014. 11. 002
- TOBB. (2023). Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birliği, Retrieved September 24, 2023, from https://www.tobb.org.tr/Sayfalar/AnaSayfa.php.
- TÜİK, T. S. (2023). Türkye İstatitik Kurumu. Retrieved September 24, 2023, from https://www.tuik.gov.tr/.
- Webb, G. R., Tierney, K. J., & Dahlhamer, J. M. (2000). Businesses and disasters: Empirical patterns and unanswered questions. Natural Hazards Review, 1(2), 83–90. doi:https:// doi. org/ 10. 1061/( ASCE) 1527-6988
- Weinhofer, G., & Busch, T. (2013). Corporate strategies for managing climate risks. Business Strategy and the Environment, 22(2), 121–144.
- Zhou, F., & Botzen, W. (2021). Firm Level Evidence of Disaster Impacts on Growth in Vietnam. Environmental and Resource Economics, 79, 277-322. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00562-0
There are 33 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Urban Economy, Regional Analysis and Development |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Project Number | Proje yok |
| Early Pub Date | January 31, 2024 |
| Publication Date | January 31, 2024 |
| Submission Date | November 26, 2023 |
| Acceptance Date | January 17, 2024 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2023 Volume: 15 Issue: 42 |
